WASHINGTON, July 7 (San Diego News Online) — NOAA forecasters say El Niño conditions are present now and are expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27, with the strongest signal centered on November through January. The Climate Prediction Center, NOAA’s official seasonal forecast arm, issued an El Niño Advisory on June 11 from its office in College Park, Maryland.
For readers, the main takeaway is not a day-to-day storm forecast. El Niño is a seasonal climate pattern that can tilt the odds for temperature and rainfall over weeks and months. If you live in a coastal area, NOAA says it is worth watching local tide and flood advisories, because El Niño can contribute to more high-tide flooding in some U.S. locations.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is part of ENSO, short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the climate cycle that also includes La Niña. During El Niño, sea-surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific run warmer than average. That warming can shift the atmosphere above it, changing wind patterns and storm tracks far from the Pacific.
NOAA says the event developed over the previous month, after above-average sea-surface temperatures first showed up in the far eastern equatorial Pacific in early February and then expanded across the central and eastern Pacific by mid-April.
What do the latest measurements show?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index was +0.7 degrees Celsius, with Niño-4 at +0.7 degrees and Niño-1+2 at +2.1 degrees. Those are ocean-temperature indexes used to track how much the tropical Pacific is warming.
The CPC says its forecast tools, including the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and NOAA’s NCEP CFSv2 model, point to further strengthening as winter approaches. In its June advisory, the center said there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January.
How should people think about the forecast?
The safest way to read an El Niño outlook is as a shift in odds, not a promise of any one weather outcome. NOAA says El Niño can influence U.S. weather patterns, but the effects vary by region and by storm.
NOAA’s Ocean Service says a developing El Niño can increase the risk of high-tide flooding in some places, which is why coastal residents may want to follow local flood alerts as winter approaches. NOAA’s seasonal outlook pages and local National Weather Service forecasts are the best places to check for location-specific impacts.
The broader forecasting picture is also moving in the same direction. The International Research Institute at Columbia says El Niño conditions are strengthening across the tropical Pacific and that the event is likely to continue intensifying.
For now, the bottom line from NOAA is straightforward: El Niño is underway, and forecasters expect it to grow stronger heading into winter 2026-27.
